Editorial | Why Lula’s victory matters

Hopefully, Flavio Bolsonaro and his supporters won’t act on any instinct to put Brazil through a period of political convulsion after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva retained power in Sunday’s run-off election.

Unlike his father, Jair Bolsonaro, four years ago, the younger Mr Bolsonaro should respect democracy and accept the will of the majority of Brazilians. For as Latin America’s largest economy, political instability in Brazil would be bad for the entire continent, potentially triggering a domino effect.

But it is not only Latin America that has an interest in Brazil’s stability and in Lula’s victory. So, too, do the members of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), which has technical cooperation with Brazil, a non-borrowing member of the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB). Brazil also borders Guyana and Suriname, two CARICOM members that sit on the north-eastern shoulder of South America.

President Lula’s re-election provides a measure of at least psychological insulation for the small countries of the region in the face of US President Donald Trump’s assertion of a more muscular version of the Monroe Doctrine. Importantly, it also keeps open an important channel for cooperation between countries of the Global South.

When Lula, who previously served as Brazil’s president between 2003 and 2011, defeated Jair Bolsonaro, a former army officer and far-right populist, in a close presidential election in 2022, Mr Bolsonaro refused to accept the outcome or allow an orderly transfer of power. Like Mr Trump in the United States with respect to his own defeat, Mr Bolsonaro spent months undermining Brazil’s election process and questioning any outcome in which he was not the winner.

AFTERMATH

In the aftermath of the poll and ahead of Lula’s swearing-in, Mr Bolsonaro’s supporters trashed government offices, the legislature, and the presidential palace in Brasilia, the country’s capital. He and some of his key ministers and former military officers were convicted of orchestrating a coup to keep Mr Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence, in power.

That is the context in which Flavio Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro’s eldest son, replaced his father as the presidential candidate for their Liberal Party, with backing from President Trump, who had overtly placed economic and political pressure on Lula’s left-of-centre administration. Similar tactics by President Trump had helped to propel far-right parties and presidents to power in several recent Latin American elections.

In the first round of the Brazilian presidential election, Mr Bolsonaro came in first with 47 per cent of the vote, two percentage points ahead of Lula’s 45 per cent. But in Sunday’s run-off, Lula staged a dramatic comeback, pulling out many supporters who, in the first round, had failed to cast ballots, to gain 51.79 per cent of the votes, against 48.21 per cent for Mr Bolsonaro. Lula’s margin of victory was over four million votes.

Nonetheless, Mr Bolsonaro and some of his supporters have disputed the outcome, calling for the election to be annulled. Their basis for this demand is that voting was allowed for an additional two hours although both sides, Lula’s and Mr Bolsonaro’s, had called for the extension because of bad weather and issues with public transportation.

Some analysts say that fewer than 35,000 votes, or less than half of one per cent of the total votes, were cast during the additional time, which was ordered by the Supreme Court. That is far fewer votes than Lula’s margin of victory.

BACKLASH AGAINST TRUMPISM

Notably, several world leaders, including some of Latin America’s right-wing presidents, have congratulated Lula on his victory, which is seen, in part, as a backlash against Trumpism and Mr Trump’s attempt to influence the outcome of the vote.

Brazil, especially under Lula and Dilma Rousseff, his successor after his first stint in the presidency, has been a good friend of the Caribbean, including Jamaica. A significant part of what Lula brings to the table that is of value to small countries like the members of CARICOM is an appreciation that they deserve a place at the table as a right, not as a favour.

In other words, sovereignty should not be measured by geography, size, or power. Its foundation is in the principle of respect for a country’s sovereignty as of right.