Met Service projects below normal rainfall for early wet season

The Meteorological Service of Jamaica (Met Service) is projecting that the early months of the upcoming wet season (April and May) will produce below normal rainfall across the island.

This was noted by Head of the Met Service’s Applied Meteorology Division, Ronald Moody, during an interview with JIS News on Tuesday.

The island's wet season lasts from April to October, with October usually seeing the highest rainfall.

“The early wet season is April, May and then there's a falloff in the amount of rainfall that we get somewhere between June and July. And then we head for the peak of the rainfall season, with a peak month for rainfall being in October,” Moody outlined.

In contrast, Moody noted that the current dry period, which runs from December to March, has seen unseasonably high rainfall, aligning with earlier predictions.

He provided a breakdown of this, explaining that December and February had below normal rainfall, while January had above normal rainfall.

“We'll just have to wait for March to end and then collect our rainfall information, complete our analysis and see what it is saying for March. So far, we have been experiencing some amount of rainfall, especially in the east and south of the island, especially over the last, possibly, seven to eight days,” Moody noted.

He attributed the unseasonal weather during the dry period to the “neutral” conditions in the Eastern and Central Pacific, creating the perfect atmosphere for rain in the Caribbean region.

“That is because of what's taking place in the Eastern and Central Pacific. When you look at the El Niño/La Niña phenomena, we're having what they refer to as neutral conditions taking place over in that side of the world,” Moody said.

He noted that El Niño typically creates strong upper-level winds across the Caribbean, that tend to blow away the atmospheric moisture that is necessary for the formation of clouds.

Without these clouds to produce rainfall, they dissipate and the region faces the increased risk of drought.

Conversely, the opposite conditions occur with La Niña. However, with the current conditions remaining neutral, Moody cautions that “anything can happen”.

He noted that the severity of the dry season varies annually. Some years see above-normal rainfall despite the season, while others experience extended dry spells that trigger islandwide drought conditions.

“The last analysis for drought indicated that while some parishes were experiencing significant levels of dryness, there was no meteorological drought taking place in any of our parishes,” he added.

Moody cautioned that despite the increase in rainfall, and the projected decrease over the next two months of the wet season, conservation is still important. He also warned against lighting bush fires in areas that may be dry during this period.

“I say bushfires because our farmers, when they clear their land in preparation for planting, they use what they call a slash and burn technique. If you're having dry conditions in an area, that can be dangerous. And… it puts unnecessary pressure on the Jamaica Fire Brigade. So, our usual advice is, don't light any bushfires,”Moody urged.

- JIS News

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