Editorial | New mineral developments and strategic promise

The resurgence of the geopolitical battle between the United States and China present both challenges and opportunities for Jamaica in the bauxite/alumina sector. The US, in attempting to rebuild parts of its primary aluminium smelting capacity, is doing something it has not done in nearly 50 years. This is aimed at reducing strategic dependence on China-dominated mineral supply chains.

Over the last 30 years, China has come to control over 60 per cent of global aluminium production capacity. The US has four smelters that together produced less than 700,000 tonnes in 2025. This is a far cry from the 4.65 million tonnes produced in 1980 by 33 smelters. The US has become a net importer of a metal it has designated as strategic for its military industrial complex.

For Jamaica, this is a direct signal that the rules governing bauxite and alumina trade may become more policy and strategy driven, with market forces taking a back seat.

Jamaica’s alumina output reached about 1.34 million tonnes in 2024 up from roughly 1.29 million tonnes in 2023. Export earnings from alumina in the first nine months of 2025 generated about US$447 million, reflecting both improved volumes and prices.

In recent quarterly data, the country’s alumina exports have averaged around 370,000–380,000 tonnes per quarter, while crude bauxite exports have remained in the 400,000-tonne range per quarter. These numbers are significantly below the halcyon days of the industry, but they are not trivial. Even in a more diversified economy, the bauxite–alumina industry remains one of Jamaica’s most important foreign exchange earners and industrial anchors.

The trends in the Jamaican bauxite and alumina sectors mirrors the decline of the US aluminium industry over the last 30 years. The reason for the decline is not a mystery. Aluminium smelting is energy-intensive, and electricity accounts for up to 40 per cent of production costs.

Producers globally typically require power prices in the range of US$30-40 per megawatt-hour to be competitive. In the United States, industrial electricity prices have risen by nearly 25 per cent over the past decade. Meanwhile, data centres, fuelled by the AI boom, can afford to pay more than US$100 per megawatt-hour, crowding out heavy industry in tight power markets.

The Trump administration has used tariffs to protect the US aluminium industry and rebuild capacity at home, but ultimately the price and availability of electricity will determine competitiveness.

Yet Washington is pressing ahead. There are proposals for new smelting investment, efforts to establish strategic reserves for critical minerals, and discussions around alternative pricing frameworks to reduce exposure to China. The policy direction is unmistakable: critical minerals are no longer just commodities; they are central to national security.

Over the last few weeks, three significant developments have taken place that Jamaica should pay attention to.

A new metal-making investment was announced. Century Aluminium is taking a 40% stake in Emirates Global Aluminum’s proposed greenfield smelter in Oklahoma billed as the first new primary aluminium smelter in the US in nearly 50 years, targeting about 750,000 tonnes per year and first metal by 2030.

Washington is trying to rewrite the rules of “mineral capitalism”. There has been active discussion of mechanisms resembling price support / price floors for critical minerals, and the US has floated a multi-country “trade bloc” concept that would use reference prices and policy tools to reduce dependence on China-dominated markets. But the US administration has reported stepped back from explicit price-floor guarantees, citing funding and technical complexity. The policy is a work in progress.

Third, the US is pairing all this with strategic stockpiling and targeted capacity support, including a stated initiative to establish a Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve (Project Vault) in the aluminium value chain specifically, the Pentagon has backed moves to increase domestic alumina output and add gallium production at ATALCO’s Gramercy, Louisiana facility, gallium being a “small volume, big leverage” metal for chips, defence and high-tech. This refinery is built to use Jamaican bauxite, which has moderate amounts of gallium.

Even as the US talks up industrial revival, power costs and competition from energy-hungry data infrastructure will be helping to squeeze primary metal production.

If the US seeks secure supply chains, reliable upstream partners gain importance. Jamaica’s proximity, long-standing trade ties, and production stability position us well. Our 6 million tonnes of bauxite and 1.3 million tonnes of alumina capacity represent scale that matters in a tightening geopolitical environment. However, preferred-supplier status will increasingly depend on traceability, environmental standards, and operational reliability, not merely on geological endowment and proximity.

As governments intervene - through reserves, incentives, and industrial policy - market structures evolve. Longer-term offtake agreements, policy-conditioned access, and pricing arrangements outside purely commercial benchmarks will become more common. For Jamaica, that could mean greater revenue stability – but also stricter compliance requirements and reduced flexibility if not negotiated carefully.

The fundamental importance of energy transformation for the industry. Countries that combine mineral endowment with competitive, reliable energy will dominate value-added segments.

Jamaica has historically remained upstream, exporting ore and alumina rather than smelting metal. That position reflects rational responses to energy cost structures. The global shift now underway should force a renewed national discussion: how do we integrate energy reform with mineral strategy? Without competitive clean or green energy, downstream ambition could be blocked, even for alumina.

If the US succeeds in expanding domestic alumina refining or securing alternative suppliers closer to home, Jamaica could face intensified competition. If standards harden and we lag on environmental and governance compliance, market access could narrow. If global pricing mechanisms become more political, smaller suppliers may lose negotiating leverage. In global metals markets, value flows toward those who combine scale, energy, technology, and policy coherence.

The United States is rediscovering industrial policy, constrained by energy economics. China has already embedded minerals within long-term strategic planning. Europe is layering carbon regulation onto trade, along with its own version of industrial policy.

Jamaica must decide whether to remain a geological supplier reacting to external currents, or to act as a strategic upstream partner shaping its own position within the reconfigured supply chain.