Yaneek Page | Post-Melissa taxes and the reset for a resilient Ja

Jamaica is facing a stress test that has shattered a decade of fiscal silence: the ‘no new taxes era’ is officially buried under the multibillion-dollar wreckage of last year’s disastrous hurricane season. News flash: fewer taxes is a luxury we can no longer afford.

In December 2025, I wrote that Jamaica was entering one of its most difficult economic periods since COVID. The Planning Institute of Jamaica had projected an 11 to 13 per cent contraction in the December quarter, the sharpest decline since the pandemic, and a 3 to 6 per cent fall in output for the fiscal year. The Bank of Jamaica warned of sustained inflation pressures and the need to maintain a firm monetary stance. After two consecutive hurricane impact years, economists have said a return to growth would not be immediate, and shrinking output and rising costs would collide. These forecasts are our new reality. Even though positive growth is expected to resume in the final quarter of 2026, a full return to pre-Melissa and Beryl output levels could take as long as five years, with all hands on deck.

Against the backdrop of Melissa’s estimated US$8.9 billion (J$1.4 trillion) in infrastructure damage and severe agricultural losses, the Government introduced a J$29.4 billion revenue package to stabilise the country’s fiscal position and close an $8.8 billion gap. On its face, new revenue measures in the aftermath of a Category 5 hurricane were to be expected because reconstruction must be financed. However, the question now impatient of debate is this: Are we using this moment for fiscal stabilisation alone, or will we pursue a broader national reset for a resilient Jamaica?

Before going further, it is important to acknowledge that Jamaica’s macroeconomic progress over the last decade has earned us deserving accolades on the global stage. Debt to GDP fell dramatically from crisis-era levels above 140 per cent to roughly the low 70 per cent range by 2024. Primary surpluses averaging 6 to 7 per cent were maintained for years, and Net International Reserves remained above US$4.5 billion heading into 2025. That discipline provided a much-needed buffer. Also, the deliberate policies to implement a catastrophe bond, parametric insurance instruments, and leverage multilateral relationships did not happen by chance, and these achievements deserve recognition. Indeed, in late 2025, the world’s leading credit agencies affirmed BB and BB ratings for the country even as they revised the economic trajectory downward to ‘stable’ after careful assessment post-Melissa evaluation.

Make no mistake about it. Fiscal discipline during calm years and fiscal resilience under extreme climate stress are not the same. In the immediate aftermath of disaster, GOJ must act quickly to prevent fiscal destabilisation, and new revenue measures are the first line of defence. However, once the conditions are stable enough, the next phase, which is equally critical, must be structural recalibration. A proper reset.

If Jamaica is entering 18 months of contractionary pressure and elevated inflation, as we have been warned, then resilience cannot be financed by revenue measures alone. It must be accompanied by evident structural reform. Let us be clear: instant reform would be a shock, and, frankly speaking, unrealistic. But at the same time we need a clearly articulated road map after a transparent operational review. Structural modernisation must be aligned to climate resilience. Citizens can more easily swallow the bitter medicine of sacrifice when they see symmetry. For instance, aligning and balancing the public sector wage bill relative to GDP, and the number of government ministries, statutory bodies, and agencies relative to country size. If consumers are being asked to pay more, and businesses are being told to operate leaner in a contracting economy, then the State must demonstrate that it is equally committed to becoming fit for purpose. Jamaica’s public administration remains structurally heavy for a country of our size. The number of government entities, bodies, and boards creates layers of coordination, and, often, duplication. Each layer carries significant costs. Each hierarch, and approval process introduces friction. Each manual interface adds time and expense. In an era of climate volatility and constrained fiscal space, government must be engineered for speed, efficiency, and resilience.

Best practice in smaller, high-performing states is not slash and burn minimal government but focused government. Lean ministries with clearly defined mandates. Digitised processes that reduce paperwork and human bottlenecks. Procurement systems designed for transparency, rapid deployment, and strategic growth. Centralised data systems that eliminate replication. Budgeting tied to measurable aligned outcomes rather than incremental expansion.

This is not a call for austerity under the guise of efficiency but rather a fit for purpose state. Digitised, robust and efficient, with disaster response mechanisms that are pre activated, not improvised. Every dollar saved through administrative modernisation in this post-Melissa era is a dollar that does not need to be raised through taxation.

Our climate exposure demands administrative agility and a government configured for the risks Jamaica now faces. There is much we can learn from others even when they have reserves and resources we do not possess. Certain principles are transferable regardless of GDP size to avoid reinventing the wheel. High-performing disaster-exposed states typically

1. Use time-bound, legislated reconstruction surtaxes rather than indefinite revenue adjustments.

2. Loop disaster revenues to clearly defined resilience plans.

3. Pair revenue expansion with transparent public reporting.

4. Treat crisis as a pivot point for infrastructure hardening.

5. Publish multiyear financing stacks that combine taxes, borrowing, grants, and risk instruments.

6. Ensure strategic procurement aligned to domestic supply-chain strengthening.

We need urgency and bipartisan agreement on Jamaica’s resilience imperative. Passing the 2026 national stress test rests on whether we will finance recovery or redesign and if we can engineer the foundation for a leaner, digitised, climate-resilient state by 2027.

One love,

Yaneek Page is the programme lead for Market Entry USA and a certified trainer in Entrepreneurship.