Russia helping China to prepare for potential invasion of Taiwan, defence institute says

LONDON (AP):

Russia is selling military equipment and technology to China that could help Beijing prepare an airborne invasion of Taiwan, according to an analysis of leaked Russian documents by a UK-based defence and security forum.

The Royal United Services Institute’s (RUSI) analysis is based on about 800 pages of documents, including contracts and lists of equipment to be supplied by Moscow to Beijing, from the Black Moon hacktivist group, which previously published some of the documents online. It does not identify its members, but describes itself in a manifesto as opposed to governments that carry out aggressive foreign policy.

The authors of the RUSI report shared some of the documents with The Associated Press and say they appear to be genuine, although parts of the documents may have been omitted or altered. AP is unable to independently verify their authenticity.

The mix of completed and apparent draft Russian documents reference meetings between Chinese and Russian delegations – including visits to Moscow – and payment and delivery timelines for high-altitude parachute systems and amphibious assault vehicles. They suggest that Russia has begun work on the products to be delivered but don’t contain direct evidence from the Chinese side that Beijing has paid any money or received any equipment.

The authors argue the equipment could be used to invade Taiwan. Under President Xi Jinping, China has embarked upon a broad modernisation programme of its armed forces with the goal of transforming it into a “world-class” military by 2050.

EQUIPMENT COULD BE USED TO ATTACK TAIWAN

High ranking US officials have suggested Xi ordered his military to be prepared for a possible invasion of Taiwan as early as 2027. Beijing claims the self-governing democracy is rightfully a part of China and has not ruled out seizing the island by force.

The documents don’t mention Taiwan directly, but the analysis by the London-based institute suggests the deal would help China gain advanced parachuting capabilities that it would need to mount an invasion, potentially speeding up a timeline.

It’s not certain that China has decided to invade Taiwan, but access to Russian equipment and localised training in China means Beijing will be better equipped for a potential invasion, Danylyuk said.

“The Chinese school of airborne landing is very young,” he said, suggesting Moscow’s assistance could help speed up China’s airborne programme by about 10 to 15 years.

Russia’s Kremlin, and China and Taiwan’s defense and foreign ministries did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

“The greatest value of the deal” to China is likely in the training and procedures for command and control of parachute forces, because Russia has “combat experience,” whereas China doesn’t, write Oleksandr Danylyuk and Jack Watling.

The analysts say Russia’s aim is to develop as a military supplier to China and fund its war in Ukraine. But Danylyuk also suggested that Moscow may want to draw Beijing into a conflict with Washington over Taiwan, distracting the US from Russia’s war with Ukraine.

While Beijing’s military capabilities largely surpass Moscow’s, the analysis says China has gaps which Russia can fill. Russia has a long history of airborne forces dating back decades, knowhow the authors say China needs.

Song Zhongping, a military commentator in Beijing, said China had superior equipment, but “Russia has more combat experience.”

Wen-Ti Sung, an expert on China and Taiwan with the Atlantic Council, said parachuting in forces would probably support the logistics of any invasion but would be unlikely to be the “main event”.

Instead, “China is playing the long game” by acquiring Russian equipment, Sung said. That’s because Beijing will find a way to reverse engineer the equipment and technology and develop it not just for airborne combat but also for advanced intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance which are critical for modern warfare, he said.