Earth Today | Growing climate costs

WITH THE global cost of climate-induced extreme weather events in the past two decades estimated at US$143 billion per year, the world’s climate tab is growing.

“Costs have increased exponentially over the last five years, and cumulative costs from 2014-2023 are estimated at US$2 trillion, affecting 1.6 billion people,” revealed the recently published seventh edition of the Global Environment Outlook (GEO-7).

“Climate-related costs are compounded by the indirect risks associated with rising temperatures, especially health issues such as heat-related illnesses and deaths, and food and water security,” the report added.

The implications are many, requiring drastic emissions cuts since the emissions of greenhouse gases related to human activities are what fuel climate change.

“Modelled pathways show with high confidence that the projected warming by 2040 can only be avoided if rapid and deep emissions cuts are made in all sectors in this decade,” the GEO-7 said.

“To achieve the Paris target of 1.5 degrees Celsius would require cuts in emissions of 42 per cent by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035, where as emissions in 2030 would be comparable to today even with full implementation of current nationally determined contributions,” the report said.

Countries, through the Paris Agreement, are obligated “to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty”. This includes “by holding increase in the global average temperature to well below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, recognising that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”.

GEO-7 – the work of 287 scientists from 82 countries – also flagged the prevailing issue of biodiversity loss.

ICONIC SPECIES

An estimated one million species are currently at risk of extinction and current extinction rates are calculated to be “several orders of magnitude greater than background rates estimated from the fossil record”.

“The world is accumulating a large extinction debt – the number of species committed to extinction – as a result of humanity’s actions from the past,” the report said.

“Many iconic species are at imminent risk of extinction, including the California Condor, Black Rhino, and the Bornean Orangutan. Genetic diversity loss since the Industrial Revolution, conservatively estimated at five-10 per cent globally and at over 25 per cent on islands, poses a threat to evolutionary potential and adaptation to future global change,” it added.

“In agricultural systems, the erosion of crop genetic diversity undermines productivity and resilience to climate change. Almost 60 per cent of the world’s land surface is now subject to moderate or intense human pressure. Human activities are increasingly altering the marine environment, with marine species adversely affected across 57 per cent of their range on average,” the report said further.

Several ecosystems are already reported to have collapsed with future collapse drifting ever closer, given climate change and other factors.

“Coral reefs, which are critical to marine biodiversity and the livelihoods of millions, are at risk from rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification, with mass bleaching events now occurring every six years on average. This threatens the economic backbone of coastal communities and the entire reef ecosystem,” the report said.

MOST VULNERABLE

Such communities include those of Caribbean small island developing states, which are among the most vulnerable to climate impacts, including extreme hurricane events – the likes of which recently devastated the western section of Jamaica, with the passage of Hurricane Melissa.

“The Amazon rainforest, a vital global carbon store, is being ravaged by deforestation and forest fires, transitioning from a carbon sink to a carbon source, with profound implications for global climate regulation. Regional warming might push the Amazon rainforest towards a tipping point where significant amounts of carbon could be released into the atmosphere, exacerbating feedbacks to the climate system,” the report explained.

The consequences are far-reaching, with the degradation of ecosystems expected to lead to a loss of services worth up to US$44 trillion annually.

“Biodiversity of plants, animals, fungi and microbes underlies healthy ecosystems and supports essential ecosystem services, including clean air and water, food, feed, fibre and bio energy. It regulates disease and climate, provides protection against erosion and extreme weather events, encourages soil formation and bio geochemical cycling, and is a source of innumerable cultural benefits to all peoples,” the report noted.

“Over 75 per cent of agricultural crops are dependent at least in part on insect pollinators while over 2.4 billion people may benefit from the coastal protection provided by mangrove forests. However, over 70 per cent of the global population inhabits environmentally compromised areas, where ecosystem services are being lost or degraded, and many ecosystems have already exceeded safe limits for biodiversity,” it added.

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