Voter intent turnaround

Just over half of Jamaica’s voting population is planning to cast a ballot in the September 3 general election set for two weeks from today.

Of the remaining potential voters, 29.1 per cent said they have no intention of going to the polls while another 20.5 per cent said they are not sure, according to the latest RJRGLEANER-commissioned Don Anderson poll.

Younger members of the electorate were the least interested in participating in choosing the next government.

The poll was conducted by Anderson’s Market Research Services Limited between August 2 and 11 among 1,008 registered voters aged 18 and over.

Among Jamaicans 65 and over, 57.6 per cent said they would vote, as did 54.1 per cent of those in the 55 to 64 age group, 57.4 per cent of those ages 45 to 54 and 48.5 per cent of those ages 35 to 44. Of those ages 25-34 years old, 44.4 per cent planned to ink their fingers at a polling station as did 39.3 per cent of younger voters ages 18 to 24.

By gender, 47.6 per cent of women said they would be voting while 53.1 per cent of men are certain they will be exercising their franchise.

For Anderson, the expectation of a 50 per cent or more turnout is optimistic and unlikely to be realised when one considers the fact that the 2020 election saw a participation rate of 37.85 per cent. At the end of that election, the Prime Minister Andrew Holness-led Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) battered the Dr Peter Phillips-helmed People’s National Party (PNP) with a 49-14 seat margin of victory.

Extenuating circumstances

Anderson noted, however, that there were extenuating circumstances in 2020 such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the fact that the country had a dampened and disillusioned electorate.

For the February 2016 General Election, which saw a change of power from Portia Simpson Miller’s PNP to the Andrew Holness-led JLP, the country saw a voter turnout of 48.4 per cent. Just over four years earlier, when Holness called his first election as prime minister, was the last time more than half the nation’s voters came out. That December 2011 General Election recorded a 53.17 per cent voter turnout that resulted in the incumbent JLP suffering a blowout 42-21 seat loss to the PNP.

“If Jamaica were to see a turnout at the polls in September of 50 per cent or more, this could be attributable to several factors. For example, persons may have been galvanised by the anti-incumbent factor or the much talked about third-term syndrome. However, irrespective of what the contributing factors are, if there is indeed a 50 per cent voter turnout at the polls this year, at least two things would have been achieved,” he said.

Continuing, Anderson said a 50 per cent turnout would bring a halt to the downward trending poll number of the last two general election cycles and “give succour to guarded optimism that the days of public participation in the electoral process, that recorded rates upward of 50 per cent, may be on the return”.

Of those who do not intend to vote, 30.1 per cent are women and 28.1 per cent men.

Among those who do not intend to vote were 32.1 per cent of 18-24-year-olds; 29.4 per cent of voters ages 25-34; and 28.5 per cent of those falling in the age bracket 35-44 also say they do not intend voting.

The lowest percentage of those who say that they do not intend to vote falls among persons 65-plus, where just 20.8 per cent have no intention of going to the polls on election day.

Among persons who were not sure that they would be voting were 28.6 per cent of individuals age 18-24; 26 per cent of those 25-34 years old; 17.2 per cent of persons 45-54; and 22.7 per cent of persons 55-64. Of voters 65 and older, 21.6 per cent were not sure.

When asked why they are voting, 34.2 per cent said to either remove the present Government or to give the Opposition Peoples’ National Party a chance.

Broken down, 21.7 per cent said they wanted to give the PNP a chance while 12.6 per cent said they wanted to remove the JLP from government.

On the other hand, 34 per cent of those who say they will be voting will be doing so to keep the present government for a third term.

Of those who want to keep the present government, 35.2 per cent are women and 32.9 per cent men.

Asked why they are not voting, 35 per cent responded that they have no confidence in either party while 17.2 per cent said neither party can help them.

Another 15.1 per cent said they have never voted in their lives.

Among those who are unsure about voting, 23.7 per cent said they have no confidence in either party while another 15 per cent said neither party can help them; 13.5 per cent said they are just not interested in voting.

When questioned about what would make them change their minds about voting, 36.1 per cent said nothing as they are just not interested and do not trust the parties.

Another 20.8 per cent said they would vote if they are helped personally while 19 per cent said improved infrastructure such as roads, drains, and garbage collection could change their minds. Another 14.8 per cent said better opportunities while 12.5 per cent said better opportunities for the youth. Fifteen per cent said they could see themselves voting if they believed the next government would provide more and better jobs.

editorial@gleanerjm.com