Missing the mark

Political analyst Damion Gordon says political manifestos have not been verified as having any impact or sway on how Jamaicans vote, despite the significant emphasis placed on the documents.

However, the University of the West Indies lecturer said for the documents, which detail political parties’ plans and policies, to produce their intended effect, they need to be widely circulated and read by voters, followed by the convening of fora to facilitate meaningful discussions around key ideas.

“You know, I would be interested to know how many voters base their decision on party manifestos. I think we have generally assumed that manifestos have this high value that has not really been verified,” he told The Gleaner.

His assessment comes amid months-long calls from some sectors in the country for both the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and the opposition People’s National Party (PNP) to produce manifestos, in what has shaped up to be a pivotal election year.

On Sunday, JLP Campaign Committee Chairman Dr Christopher Tufton said the party is now focusing on its book of achievements, and is taking this in stages.

He said the JLP has been in office for over nine years and that it is important for the party to remind and demonstrate to Jamaicans that those years have been purposeful and have bettered their lives.

“Once we get that through [to] the population, and that is a work in progress, we will then release the manifesto, which is an aspirational document for where we will go,” said Tufton.

“I can’t say this week or next, but it certainly will be released before the time, and discussions around it take place,” he noted.

The PNP is expected to release its manifesto today at a launch at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston.

It comes just weeks three weeks before the September 3 general election. The nomination of candidates will take place on August 18.

Gordon said there is a reduced appetite and interest among Jamaicans voters to engage with political material, especially manifestos, which tend to be long, wordy and sometimes too aspirational rather than practical.

He said, generally, political parties will face the problem of how to generate widespread interest in their manifestos that would make the extremely demanding task of producing them worthwhile.

He said this challenge is compounded by the fact that there are other low-cost and effective channels – especially digital interfaces – that political parties can use to quickly and, in a simplified manner, disseminate political information/messaging to voters.

Gordon said there is also the view that voters in the Jamaican political context who are most interested in manifestos, are the sceptics or cynics who are least likely to vote.

“All of these are valid considerations. However, insofar as the release of manifestos might have a marginal effect on influencing the decisions of uncommitted or undecided voters, the political parties must find a way to produce and circulate manifestos in a way that ensures maximum engagement and resonance with target groups. The conventional approach of simply putting it out there will not be enough,” he said.

The results of a Don Anderson public opinion poll, conducted between September 27 and October 3, 2024 showed almost 60 per cent of the respondents indicating that they do not rely on manifestos to make a decision.

In the survey, which captured the views of 1,012 Jamaicans age 18 years or older, 58.7 per cent said they have no impact, 14.1 per cent said some impact, while 13.6 per cent confirmed that they have great impact. A similar 13.6 per cent said they have little impact.

The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level.

It is not clear where those figures stand today, but at the time, Anderson said while Jamaicans have indicated that debates between leaders and candidates, parties’ manifestos/plans, party conferences, and receiving gifts to vote all have no impact on their willingness to vote, manifestos represented the factor highest on their list, though this accounted for less than 30 per cent of all voters surveyed.

kimone.francis@gleanerjm.com