Golding slips as Holness rises

As Jamaica edges closer to its general election, the latest RJRGLEANER-commissioned Don Anderson poll reveals Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness enjoys a slight but noteworthy edge over Opposition Leader Mark Golding in public favourability. Yet, according to two political commentators, beneath the surface of these figures may lie a more troubling reality for both major political leaders: a disengaged electorate, high unfavourability ratings, and growing public dissatisfaction with the political system itself.

According to the May-June 2025 poll results, Holness, leader of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), holds a 7.5 percentage point lead in favourability over Golding of the People’s National Party (PNP).

Pollster Anderson said the findings, in the context of three recent polls – adding April 2024 and June 2024 to the current mix – are interesting.

“Holness records the highest favourabilty rating in two of the three, with 40 per cent in April 2024. Golding’s highest positive ratings is also in the April 2024 poll, with 37 per cent. Holness then had a three-percentage-point lead over Golding in leader favourability.

“Holness’ rating dipped in the June 2024 poll to 34.6 per cent and there was a similar fall-off in Golding’s rating down to 35.8 per cent, but the fall-off in both led to Golding being considered marginally more favourable than Holness, this for the first time. That lead was 1.2 per cent ... ,” he reasoned.

The latest poll results show that Holness’ rating increased by three percentage points, while Golding’s fell by 5.7 percentage points.

The poll has a margin of error of plus/minus three per cent.

Aggressive campaign

The latest bump in Holness’ favourability appears to correlate with his heightened national visibility, Anderson said. He noted that since January, Holness – who is seeking a historic third term for a JLP leader – has embarked on an aggressive campaign of ribbon-cuttings, groundbreakings, and benefit handovers.

But that’s still not the entire picture.

While Holness may have capitalised on the power of incumbency, Anderson stressed the volatility of the political landscape, particularly when net favourability ratings – favourable minus unfavourable – are taken into account. In the May 2025 poll, Golding’s net positive of +7.4 actually edges out Holness’ +7.2, even though Holness has the higher raw favourability rating.

In the latest poll, 30.4 per cent of respondents had a negative view of Holness, compared to 22.7 seeing Golding as unfavourable.

Additionally, 32.1 per cent had no opinion of Holness with 42.7 per cent mum on Golding.

Despite the statistical edge enjoyed by Holness, both leaders are underperforming in the court of public opinion, according to University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer and political analyst Damion Gordon. He characterised the findings as “troubling”, citing that both men continue to poll under 40 per cent in favourability.

“There are clear signs of concern ... as both continue to receive generally low favourability ratings, below 40 per cent,” Gordon told The Sunday Gleaner.

He noted that a majority of voters either have an unfavourable or no opinion at all of either party leader, and “this trend reflects strong and consistent evidence of voter disengagement and dissatisfaction, as confirmed by multiple recent polls”.

The high “no opinion” numbers for both leaders, especially Golding, further compound the problem. Gordon argues this segment of the electorate may represent either entrenched political apathy or an opportunity for the parties to convert undecided voters. This floating demographic could be pivotal in determining the outcome of the polls expected by September.

Pointing to the role of gender in the findings, he said, it was noteworthy that women have a considerably more favourable opinion of Holness compared to Golding.

“Male respondents, on the other hand, are almost evenly split in their opinions of both leaders. This suggests that the prime minister has a stronger appeal among women – an important voting demographic given their higher rates of voter participation. The Opposition should view this as a potential sign of vulnerability. It would be helpful to gain deeper insights into the factors that shape men’s and women’s perceptions of each leader,” the lecturer suggested.

“The prime minister’s favourability is higher than that of the opposition leader and has marginally improved since the last poll. In contrast, the opposition leader’s favourability has declined. The prime minister enjoys higher favourability across both genders and nearly all age groups, except those aged 55 to 64. However, it is important to note that unfavourable opinions of the prime minister are also higher across both genders and [almost] all age groups,” Gordon pointed out, with the age group 18-24 being the exception.

Looking at possible drivers of Holness’ favourability, the UWI lecturer noted that he has the advantage of incumbency, which allows him to showcase tangible achievements.

But, a “stronger personal branding, with higher name and face recognition and greater party unity, with JLP supporters showing stronger alignment and loyalty to their leader”, are positive indicators.

Internal factions

In contrast, he said Golding may still be struggling to consolidate internal factions within the PNP and to fully galvanise support from his party’s base.

For Gordon, however, favourability is no indication of electoral outcomes.

“It is important to remember that Jamaican voters do not directly elect a prime minister. Favourability ratings, therefore, do not automatically translate into voting intentions. For instance, a PNP supporter might express a favourable view of the prime minister yet still vote along party lines. Similarly, there are voters, whether favourable or unfavourable toward either leader, who do not intend to vote at all. This further negates the impact of this metric on voter decision,” he noted.

Professor Christopher Charles, a political psychologist at UWI, Mona, added a layer of institutional context.

“The margin of this lead is not unexpected in the Westminster system, where the PM has the advantage with power of the purse, especially in an election year,” he explained.

The prime minister’s ability to steer public funds, command ministries, and remain visible on the ground often gives incumbents an electoral leg-up, noted the professor of political and social psychology.

Charles, too, cautioned against drawing direct lines from favourability ratings to electoral victory.

“The poll findings on the party standings will give a better picture of the election race because the main parties in Westminster are dominant players in the political culture and in the hearts and minds of voters. In countries with a loose party system, like, for example, France and Kenya, a popular leader leaving his party takes a large share of party supporters with him or her,” Charles suggested.

This is not so in Jamaica, he said, noting that the country’s very strong party system isolates breakaway leaders.

More popular party

“So the poll findings on the party standings will be very crucial. More voters will support the more popular party irrespective of who the leader is in the Westminster system. It is noteworthy that the opposition party won the only two close general elections in 2007 and 2016,” he stated.

The poll also breaks down favourability by demographic groups. In terms of age, Holness’ strongest support comes from individuals aged 65 and over (46.8%), while Golding finds his greatest support in the 55–64 age group (38.9%) As it relates to gender, Holness’ better support comes from women, (38.4%) where Golding’s better gender-based support came from men at 35.9 per cent.

Now in its annual conference season, the PNP has been on the road with meetings to select members for various bodies and structures at the divisional, regional, and national level in the party. According to Anderson, the decision to conduct more localised campaigning is a possible contributor to Golding’s falling numbers. He said while the house-to-house campaign was important, it is possible that a removal from the national scene could have had an impact.

erica.virtue@gleanerjm.com