MET Service seeking forecasting alternatives to weather Trump cutbacks

Jamaica is bracing for potential fallouts from the Donald Trump administration’s funding and job cuts at the primary weather forecasting agency in the United States, which supplies the island with some satellite information for local weather predictions.

This comes amid incomplete repair work on the Doppler weather radar installed in Cooper’s Hill, St Andrew, in 2022.

Evan Thompson, principal director at the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, told The Gleaner yesterday that the country receives “quite a bit of” information from US agencies – including the Florida-based National Hurricane Center – that have launched satellites which indicate the kind of weather conditions that are expected over the island.

“We rely on them, [and] so far we have not had anything being taken away from us,” said Thompson, who noted that Jamaica is not solely dependent on the US for information.

“I think they are reanalysing exactly what we will be able to get (information). If we do lose some of our regular sources of information, we are looking to see where else we would get them from,” he added.

He pointed to the World Meteorological Organization which, he said, also assists with the collaboration of countries for forecast information.

Caribbean meteorological experts last week noted that the region was working to strengthen alternative partnerships to shore up resilience in what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.

The Trump administration’s 2026 budget proposal has drastically cut funding for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), particularly targeting its research arm – the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR).

The plan includes eliminating OAR entirely, closing all weather and climate research labs, and reducing NOAA’s overall budget by approximately 27 per cent, from $6.1 billion to around $4.4 billion.

Thompson said Jamaica anticipates that there will “likely be some kind of fallout” if not immediately, long term.

“It is research that’s being cut that would affect things further down the road. So, things like that, we are looking at. What are the alternatives and how we can be more self-reliant in these cases as well,” he said.

In the meantime, he disclosed that repair work is not yet complete on the Doppler weather radar, noting that “they have been addressing the matter of having it repaired”.

He said it is scheduled for the final stages later this month and should be completed before July.

“We hope that everything will be fine in terms of its operations,” Thompson said.

The radar has been non-functional since at least March 2022 due to a mechanical defect in the antenna assembly. Initially, repair work was expected to be completed by the end of 2024.

The Meteorological Service of Jamaica detected the issue on March 9, 2022 and notified the US-based manufacturers, who assessed the radar on March 16. The repair, requiring a replacement antenna, was initially estimated to take six months, delaying the radar’s commissioning.

The radar is a crucial tool in meteorology for detecting precipitation, estimating its movement, and even identifying the type of precipitation, such as rain, snow, or hail.

However, Thompson noted that the radar being out of commission does not impair broader weather forecasting, with data being sourced regionally and through collaboration with the National Hurricane Center.

“We have a number of other tools because, I mean, not many countries have Doppler radars but they still have to produce forecasts. So, we utilise satellite imagery; we use the other inputs that come into our systems, because we’re constantly monitoring based on information we get from all the other countries.

“So, we do have monitoring systems to see what is happening around us. But over the island now, we would basically depend on the forecast models that we use as well as satellite imagery and, you know, any other stations that we have on the ground,” he said.

kimone.francis@gleanerjm.com