Parties anticipating high voter turnout later this year

Voter turnout for elections over the years has been low, but members of the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) believe more citizens, particularly their key target groups - young adults and women - will show up at the polls in the next general election, driven by a track record of trust in Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness and his ability to handle crucial social issues.

Jamaica has held four elections since 2016. Two of those have been general elections and the other two local, with the general elections seeing an average 42 per cent voter turnout from among approximately two million eligible voters.

According to information provided by the Electoral Office of Jamaica (EOJ), 876,310 people voted in the 2011 general election, representing 53 per cent of the more than 1.6 million registered voters. In the 2016 general election, 882,389 people cast their votes, representing 48.37 per cent of the more than 1.8 million registered voters. However, only 724,317 of the more than 1.9 million registered electors voted in the 2020 general election, representing a 37.85 per cent voter turnout.

While expressing doubt in the accuracy of voter turnout numbers in past elections, noting that despite much effort, persons who have died and individuals who have migrated are still reflected on voters’ lists, JLP General Secretary Dr Horace Chang said he was confident in the “political common sense” of Jamaicans, particularly the working class, to whom it matters most.

Chang and other JLP representatives were participating in a special Gleaner Editors’ Forum earlier this month.

“The Jamaican voter population is sometimes underestimated regarding their own political common sense,” charged Chang, as he fleshed out a profile of expected JLP voters for the next general election. He agreed with his colleague Senator Dr Dana Morris Dixon’s focus on educated young Jamaicans, and on females, primarily regarding their healthcare. However, Chang is banking on Jamaicans examining the difference in party leadership between the JLP and the opposing People’s National Party (PNP), before casting their ballot.

“The people who analyse, and who we consider intellectually smart, tend to be a little bit insensitive to what is going on because they have an income that can manage whatever happens. They will make money regardless of whatever happens... . So they don’t take an interest in things like balance of payment, fiscal balance,” noted Chang.

“But the working people who have to be on the road every day...that person is very aware of what’s going on in the country, and they are the ones who will decide the election. They are the ones who know, if they get a job, while it may not be at the level that they want, getting a pay package on a Friday evening means a heck of a lot for them,” he said.

PERCEPTION OF LEADERS

“This election year, you are going to get a higher turnout, but you will have to now look at how people perceive both leaders, and also concern for the country, which are issues of high concern. I think the Jamaican voter population has matured and they are now looking more carefully at performance in terms of economy, jobs, crime, and education. These issues will be on the agenda for the voters and the question of who is better able to resolve them.”

Unlike the 1980 general election, where, as in any democracy, emotional issues drove voters, Chang reasoned, these days the focus is on policy and competent leadership. Some voters are just not motivated, and it is something that is not easily changed, he said.

Morris Dixon, who is also the minister of education, said this election will be about affording young tertiary students a greater voice in Jamaica’s democracy, and amplifying the fiscal headways that the JLP administration has made.

“We sometimes underestimate how much work it took to get the debt down. And so you have to do that throughout a lot of the first term, and then into the second term, and then we had a major pandemic. So Jamaicans, when we are looking at this election,we are asking ourselves, ‘Which party can take us forward?”’ she explained, highlighting global uncertainty and geopolitical trade wars.

“The track record of the Jamaica Labour Party, whenever our country has met times of uncertainty, we have been able to deliver, and I think we have shown that with COVID.”

PNP Senator Peter Bunting was not convinced of the remarkable track record of which Chang and Morris Dixon spoke.

“I would think that an Opposition who have researched and put forward policy proposals would receive much more credibility than a government who has been in office for 10 years and cannot run on their track record, and, instead, are trying to run on proposals,” he charged, addressing a Gleaner Editors’ Forum with representatives of the PNP.

Opposition Spokesperson on Local Government, Community Development and Sports, Natalie Neita Garvey, believes stronger political education and getting the message to more people on the ground is the best way to increase the historically low voter turnout.

“Politics remain for me one on one and community-driven, and the information that gets to the people is important. What we see on social media oftentimes doesn’t mean much to the average man, unless he is able to get the information that is required. I think that is the major difference between us and them (the JLP) right now. We are connecting at the base and bringing the information to the people,” she explained, noting that the “communities” include diehards, those who have switched allegiances, persons disgruntled with the current Government, and persons who have never participated in politics before.

Dr Dayton Campbell, general secretary of the PNP, is of the view that the PNP voters will come out.

“In the 2020 election we lost support; this (JLP) Government really didn’t gain any support...we lost over 130,000 votes. In the local government election last year... we were able to pull more votes than we did in the previous general election, which means that our people are back,” Campbell emphasised, noting that undecided persons are one of the PNP’s key target groups.

corey.robinson@gleanerjm.com