Rising intent

Although more people are expressing their intent to vote in the next general election, pollster Don Anderson has cautioned that this may not translate into a higher voter turnout on election day.

The latest RJRGLEANER-commissioned public-opinion poll, done by Anderson’s Market Research Survey Limited, shows that 45 per cent of Jamaicans intend to vote in the next general election, constitutionally due by September. This marks a slight increase from 42 per cent in the September 2024 poll.

The survey was conducted between January 30 and February 12, among 1,201 registered voters aged 18 and over from across all parishes. The margin of error is plus/minus three per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level.

However, Anderson pointed out that despite the rise in declared intent to vote, the country has seen a trend of decreasing voter turnout, and he expects this pattern to persist when Jamaicans next head to the polls.

“The increase in the intent to vote may not necessarily mean anything much,” he said. “Even though there are more people who say they are going to turn out to vote, I’m saying it is unlikely to make a difference in the number of people who actually turn out to vote.”

Anderson noted that various factors, including voters’ indecision about which party to support, often affect their final choice on election day.

The survey found that 26 per cent of participants are still undecided about voting, while 20 per cent stated they will definitely not vote. Only nine per cent said they are likely to vote.

“Both parties have been engaged in some level of overt campaigning over the past few months, and there is great speculation as to when the call will be made. This is one factor that has driven this apparently heightened interest in voting in the next election. Again, historically, undecided voters largely remain so right up to election, and it is not expected that the turnout will exceed 40 per cent come election day,” Anderson said.

He pointed to the 2020 election, held during the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw the lowest voter turnout in Jamaica’s history at just 37.8 per cent.

However, describing that election as an “anomaly”, former Director of Elections Orrette Fisher believes there is a “strong possibility” that more people will be casting votes in the impending polls than in previous ones.

“A lot of times, the actual numbers increase over the previous election, but because the voters’ list has been growing to that extent, the percentage of those on the voters’ list is what persons are focusing on, but actually numbers – the actual turnout – has been increasing,” he told The Gleaner.

Data from the Electoral Commission of Jamaica showed that 876,310 people voted in the 2011 general election, representing 53 per cent of the more than 1.6 million registered voters. In the 2016 general elections, 882,389 people cast their votes, representing 48 per cent of the more than 1.8 million registered voters.

However, only 724,317 of the more than 1.9 million registered voters voted in the 2020 general election.

Fisher argues that focusing solely on the percentage of voter turnout does not present a true picture of the situation.

“What has contributed to that is the fact that there is no mechanism really for automatic removal of persons. So you have a lot of people who have migrated and some who have died … . They are a part of that base, and they remain a part of that base, and so when you take it as a percentage, there is a decline,” he sought to explain.

The potential for increased voter turnout in the next election, Fisher contends, depends largely on how well the political parties mobilise their supporters.

“Depending on what they do to get their people out, that significantly affects the turnout. You might have people by themselves who are not interested, but because the party is willing to come out and arrange transportation for them, and so on, [they eventually vote],” he said.

Fisher also highlighted that leadership and how parties address issues important to voters will also influence turnout.

Meanwhile, 58 per cent of those who say they are definitely planning to vote are males, compared to the just over 40 per cent who are female.

Additionally, 61 per cent of the voters in the 55-64 age group say they are determined to vote. A high incidence is also recorded among those in the 65 and over age group, where 56 per cent plan to go out on election day.

In contrast, the 18-24 age group shows the least interest in voting, with only 27 per cent intending to cast a ballot. Similarly, 26 per cent of those aged 25-34 plan to vote. However, the 25-34 age group has the highest percentage of people who are certain they will not vote, followed closely by the 18-24 age group, where 23 per cent have expressed no intention to vote.

sashana.small@gleanerjm.com