POOR’S PLIGHT PLUMMETING

More than half of Jamaicans polled in a national survey believe that the circumstances of the nation’s most vulnerable are worsening even as the country tallies 10 consecutive quarters of economic growth.

Fifty-eight per cent of the 1,015 respondents in the Don Anderson-led Market Research Services Limited survey asserted that things are getting worse for Jamaicans of poorer classes.

At the same time, 21 per cent believe that the circumstances of poorer classes have remained unchanged, and 19 per cent are of the view that things are getting better for those subsets of the population.

Three per cent indicated that they could not give an assessment.

The poll has a sampling error of plus or minus three per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level. It was conducted between November 24 and December 7 and commissioned by senior executives of the private sector who asked to remain unnamed.

Jamaica registered a record-low unemployment rate of 4.5 per cent in 2023 with net international reserves at US$4.5 billion as at November.

Export earnings increased by 55 per cent for the first quarter of 2023, while a debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 74 per cent is projected by the end of this fiscal year.

But above average, 60.6 per cent of women polled indicated that conditions for the poorer classes are declining. Meanwhile, 54.3 per cent of men had similar conclusions.

On the counter, 22.6 per cent of men believed that things are improving for the groups, while 15.6 per cent of women had similar opinions.

“The macroeconomic picture is looking clearly better. We’re still in the rebounds from COVID, but of course we’ve had a couple of years of very depressed growth, and that means certain matters are pent up. We’re now seeing something of a resurgence,” said Anthony Clayton, professor of Caribbean Sustainable Development at the University of the West Indies (UWI), in his assessment of the findings.

Clayton, one of UWI’s leading experts on matters of economic development, noted that there were always questions surrounding the durability of Jamaica’s recovery and whether its private sector was making the necessary adjustments to sustain growth into the future.

The hotel sector has continued on that trajectory, he assessed, pointing to the construction of more rooms.

“Other sectors, I’m less confident that they are making the necessary investments to sustain the recovery, but that is left to be seen,” Clayton told The Gleaner.

That point is buttressed by Anderson’s findings which revealed that three in every five young Jamaicans are of the view that the circumstances of poorer Jamaicans are deteriorating.

Sixty-one per cent of Jamaicans aged 18 to 24 formed this view, and similarly, those in the 25 to 34 and 35 to 44 age groups.

Additionally, more than half of respondents aged between 45 to 54 (57.8 per cent) and those 65 and older (56.6 per cent) agreed with their juniors, while for Jamaicans between the ages of 55 and 64.44 per cent agreed.

“The interesting point is that this suggests that what we’re seeing is a recovery with really very little trickledown,” Clayton said.

“Of course, what we saw during COVID was something of many countries accelerating the process of automation, and that means that there are some people who are going to find it harder to get back into the job market, and the people who graduated during the period, we’ve heard anecdotally, that some of them are struggling as well,” he added.

The UWI professor said this is because those graduates are a couple of years behind and are now competing with people who have got years of experience.

He said the findings may be reflective of a recovery that is not benefitting the poorer members of society who do not have the skills, capability, and qualifications to move into the growth area, but is working well for the elite.

In the same breath, Clayton warned that Jamaica is still in the very early stages of the real impact of automation and artificial intelligence, which he said will likely eliminate low-skilled jobs.

“That’s going to be a major challenge not just for us, but for many countries — how and what are people going to do to earn a living. So many of the things that AI promises to do are simply cheaper, faster, more reliable than your human labour. And that extends right across the economy - everything from law and medicine through to construction and security and pretty much all points in between,” said Clayton.

kimone.francis@gleanerjm.com