Mark Wignall | Hurricane or elections?

The Atlantic hurricane season begins in June and goes until the end of November. Throughout those months trepidation and a host of anxieties tend to consume us. The year in which an election is due is not unlike the hurricane season.

We know the prime minister (PM) enjoys the constitutional fluidity of calling elections due any month until September 2025. Will the election, when it comes, make us better or will it batter us with the usual swing from pomp-and-circumstance to plain empty-headnesses.

I would not rule out the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) being ahead of the People’s National Party (PNP) even without the benefit of a recent poll. Which is me also saying that the ‘leaking of poll info’ is as politically phony as is the deliberate leaking of phony numbers. Psychological warfare intricately woven into pressing public matters to destabilise the other party is quite normal in politics.

Now, could the JLP be six points ahead? Yes.

Prime Minister Holness welcoming 2024 into 2025 and not immediately calling elections due in September told some political watchers that the JLP could have some reasonably good political news coming up in the Budget. And the delay also dished out more time for the nation to examine PNP leader, Mark Golding.

Would his words and political stances make the people see him better or would they look at him and declare that the general and wise advice would be for him to mentally cede the loss but play faux political leader in the public square even as he prepares to walk away.

As a long time political watcher I don’t want to draw early conclusions about the PNP leader. Much of that is based on the fact that Opposition Leader Mark Golding has never been the type that would be comfortable allowing too much of his quirks, and his personality attributes to be tossed around liberally. So, it is hard to judge how that part of him relates to the political public when so little of it exists.

Also I sense that Holness believes that more than a few Jamaicans many be softening on him and his Integrity Commission matters and I would not be surprised if he scores reasonably with his administration’s success on bringing down the murder rate. But as I said before, the base rate was already high.

A few days ago I was at a little spot when a long line of police and military vehicles drove by in an no-nonsense matter. There was also a truck-load with young men taken up for station processing. People nearby surprised me as they began to applause. I got the name of the inner city pocket they had targeted.

I said to a policeman friend nearby, “Seriously now, when onnu scrape up dem yout dey now, nuh net fishing dat.”

“No man”, he said. “In most cases, we usually nab man all wanted fi multiple killings. Don’t jus dismiss it.”

It seems to me that in that waiting game, the PM may be gaining ground on pushing back against murders. If this keeps up until say July, the opposition leader will face a huge mountain of political stress that will make him ripe for a picking by June, July.

PRESIDENT NEEDS HELP

As hurricanes rammed into a few southern states last year, a part of the GOP and Trump propaganda campaign sent out the misinformation that FEMA was broke. At the same time Trump was telling the willing press that he would prefer FEMA be dealt with by the states.

I was floored. What does he believe the F in FEMA stands for? Why could he not rationalise that in the United States there would be the federal leadership which would chime in to assist especially in natural disasters. Or, could it be that Trump had never had to endure a fraction of the displeasures that normal humans go through each day. Or, could it be much more?

“Trump exemplifies the dangers of elevating a person of ignorance and limited intellect to a position of immense power. His remarks frequently diverge from reality, driven by self-interest and amplified by a circle of enablers who exploit his shallow understanding of governance and global affairs.” wrote CounterPunch.org

In the most foolish fight that he has picked with Canada, he classified the trade deficit as a loss to the US. He does this simply because he doesn’t understand government and hates to be around others brave enough to tell him how little he knows.

In a country like United States where 70 per cent of GDP is consumer spending, that trade (US$2.7 billion crosses the Canadian border each day) is fuel to the fire driving the world leading economy, the US in all of last year. Once that sort of trade is slowed, the overall growth will slow.

Too many months of that will not help Trump politically. If he cannot see that, the dark shadow will follow the GOP all the way to the midterms.

NON-EXISTENT CONSTITUENT

“I vote for Trump in 2016 and I neva mek so much money,” said a 55 year old Jamaica-born US citizen.

“Me vote for him last year. Me hear the Dems talking bout transgender and people in drag reading to my children. I am not into that crap!” he said.

A Democratic voter shared with me a most interesting perspective. “Yeah I understood Kamala’s message but I knew we would lose. The real Democratic voter has not arrived yet. That sort of a voter cannot afford to find himself living pay cheque to pay cheque.

“A man has to move far beyond that and it will be easier for him to reach out in his mind to supporting starving children in Sudan, to notionally supporting lesbian and gay and trans matters and to care more about our neighbour.

“In a strange way, the Democratic voter needs extra moulding plus a tougher skin. The sorts of rhetorical posturings with the GOP in the most recent campaigns saw the Dems wearing kid gloves. If we want to be dangerously hobbled again all we have to do is latch on to the style of the recent campaigns.

“For the next campaign, we will be decked out in a suit of mail. It will be no holds barred as we breathe fire all the way to the midterms.”

Mark Wignall is a political and public affairs analyst. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and mawigsr@gmail.com.