Editorial | Expand partnerships

More than a year ago, before Donald Trump’s formal re-occupation of the White House, this newspaper urged Jamaica and its Caribbean Community (CARICOM) partners to begin a strategic expansion of their global alliances, including seeking to do more with existing trade and economic partnerships.

This, neither then nor now, means that the region should downgrade its relations with the United States, or that its initiatives should be needlessly and/or openly provocative of Washington. That would be irresponsible and counterproductive.

Rather, the situation calls for deep, multi-stakeholder engagement and analyses of the circumstances in which the region now exists and the emerging environment, which should inform a robust diplomacy with a widening group of international partners.

For, if Mr Trump’s trade-disrupting global tariffs soon after assuming office underlined why the CARICOM should have a wider slate of economic partners, recent events have reinforced the logic of integration and the necessity of the region seeking to expand its insulation.

In other words, Jamaica and CARICOM must act to protect their interests, following the example of the European Union’s (EU) overdrive effort, after years of delay, to conclude a free trade agreement with the South American trade bloc, MERCOSUR.

SECURITY STRATEGY

Subsequent to his tariffs, Mr Trump, issued a national security strategy in December, emphasising America’s intention of being the dominant global power – and to be acknowledged as such. With respect to the Western Hemisphere, he reasserted the Monroe Doctrine of America’s hegemony in the region, but there is the Trump corollary: that, among other things, China, and other countries the United States considers to be strategic competitors, should be made to divest from strategic infrastructure in the region, including sea ports and airports and critical minerals.

Mr Trump followed up 12 days ago with the bombing of Venezuela and the grabbing of the country’s president, Nicolás Maduro, who he considered illegitimate. Mr Maduro is being put on trial in the United States, ostensibly for drug trafficking.

Despite Mr Maduro’s colleagues remaining in charge of the Venezuelan government, Mr Trump has said he will “run” the country, including having effective control over Venezuela’s oil industry.

Essentially, Mr Trump is hastening the collapse of the existing global order that, despite its many frailties, afforded small countries, like those in CARICOM, some level of protection. There is no certainty about its replacement, except perhaps for Great Power dynamics and their exertion of spheres of influence.

As this newspaper has observed, the EU’s scramble to finalise a trade deal with Mercosur is part of Europe’s effort to ensure new areas of protection against the cross currents of weaponised trade and rival economic blocs.

Jamaica and CARICOM have even less space within which to manoeuvre than the EU. But, even as the region contends with the power and proximity of the United States, that shouldn’t mean an abject surrender of sovereignty, or a failure to utilise existing, and available mechanisms to lessen dependence on the US without rupturing US-Caribbean relations

In that regard, the most obvious and immediate opportunities lie with the EU, Britain and Canada, long-standing trade and economic partners – a relationship which the region has insufficiently leveraged.

For instance, since 2008, CARIFORUM (CARICOM plus the Dominican Republic) has had a reciprocal free trade agreement with the EU, under which the region is to fully open its market to 87 per cent of goods and services over 25 years.

TRADE BALANCE

In 2024, the region exported €14.2 billion in goods to the EU and imported €7.9 billion in goods. The trade balance in favour of the region of €6.3 billion worsened, by 117 per cent the deficit of the previous year. CARIFORUM exports to the EU were largely dominated by manufacturing and agriculture from the Dominican Republic and mineral exports by Trinidad and Tobago. However, recently, petroleum exports by Guyana (all exports in 2024 of €9.7 billion) have caused that country to have a disproportionate impact on the region’s visible trade with the EU. Jamaica’s export to the EU last year was €191.15 million, and imports valued €483.12 million.

Hopefully, things have improved, or will change with the new American dynamic. However, EU analyses of the low Caribbean take-up of the EPA’s offerings have noted low private-sector awareness, including in Jamaica, of the agreement. The uncompetitiveness of regional manufacturers also contributes to its weak exports to that market. Similar problems exist in Britain, which, after Brexit, mirrored the EU/CARIFORUM EPA for its trade with the region.

After nearly four decades, CARICOM’s preferential trading agreement with Canada, CARIBCAN (Caribbean-Canada Trade Agreement), [it received a new waiver by the WTO last year to 2033] continues to perform sluggishly. Canada-Caribbean bilateral trade last year was a mere Ca$1.74 billion, with the Canadians importing Ca$794 million.

Jamaica and CARICOM must begin new conversations with their private sectors and other stakeholders on how to advance the region’s exports, in visible goods and services, to these markets, while at the same time attempting to deepen what should be natural alliances with the African Union members. The region should also be seeking common ground, including trade and economic partnerships with countries in Latin America and Asia. Brazil and India seem obvious candidates for this new push.

Global circumstances are enhancing these possibilities.