Peter Espeut | No sustainability at COP 30

It seems that the only interests that went home happy after the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 30) that wrapped up last Saturday in Belém, Brazil, were the oil-producing countries.

Geologists tell us that over the last many millions of years Planet Earth has been through several “Ice Ages”, alternative periods of glaciation and global warming; we are in an Ice Age right now (observe the glaciers at the north and south poles), except that human-induced climate change is too rapidly bringing it to an end.

Reputable scientists all agree that the consistent discharge of greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide, methane) into the atmosphere due to industrialisation is causing our common home – Planet Earth – to heat up like it never has before, at a rate it never has before, with disastrous effects. Historically the forests which used to cover much of the earth would absorb carbon dioxide, preventing excessive build up; increased gaseous discharge plus heavy deforestation has been a double whammy!

(And by the way, at one point in the ‘80s Jamaica had the highest rate of deforestation in the world! We can no longer hold that records, as we have little forest cover left to deforest. And the tree-planting effort has stalled).

The periodic warming-freezing cycles of Planet Earth may have been disrupted, which is taking nature into the unknown.

Some people call it “climate change”, and it is that, for hurricanes are becoming more frequent and stronger. (Has anyone noticed that?) The water cycle has been affected: rainy seasons are wetter, and dry spells (droughts) are longer. As the earth gets warmer, diseases and pests found only in the tropics will move towards the poles. This is bad enough, but gets worse!

The term “climate change” is misleading, as much more than the climate (weather, the seasons, temperature, hurricanes) is changing. As the polar ice caps melt, the mean sea level rises, causing present coastal areas to be periodically flooded; eventually they will become saline and submerged, and aquifers will be affected, making fresh water scarcer, and less land available for human habitation (cities, towns) and for growing food.

Carbon dioxide dissolves in seawater to become carbonic acid, making the seas and oceans are more acidic. Marine organisms which incorporate calcium carbonate and other chemicals in their internal and external skeletons (shells) will find it harder to do so, as calcium carbonate – more or less insoluble in water – is more soluble in acidic solutions. This causes changes down the food chain, which will eventually affect higher up, where humans get nourishment.

As the seas and oceans heat up, they become reservoirs of heat energy. Over the last 50 years, seawater near the surface and in the ocean depths has been storing a staggering quantity of heat; scientists estimate it to be 250 x 10 to the 20th power joules. Human activity is changing the face of the Earth, and the fate of the Earth.

Natural scientists – physicists, chemists and biologists – but also ecologists and environmentalists – have been warning the world of the damage that is being done, and the dangers; I have done my share over the thirty-plus years I have been writing this column. And to be fair, some political leaders in some parts of the world have got the message, at some time or the other.

At the Earth Summit also in Brazil (Rio de Janiero) in 1992 a different generation of world leaders promised to put aside environmentally unsustainable practices and committed to “sustainable development”.

The words have not turned into meaningful action. At COP 21 in Paris, France, the 195 parties signed a legally binding international treaty on climate change in 2015 to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.” This is because the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that crossing the 1.5°C threshold risks unleashing far more severe climate change impacts.

To limit global warming to 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 at the latest, and decline 43 per cent by 2030.

The Paris Agreement came into force in 2016 but it does not seem that it will meet its target. The 2025 Emissions Gap Report tabled at COP 30 finds that global warming projections over this century, based on what countries say they will do to reduce emissions, are now 2.3-2.5°C, while projections based on what they actually do are 2.8°C. The target of “2°C above pre-industrial levels” will not be attained, never mind 1.5°C.

Brace yourself for the worst!

Reducing deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions means slowing down industrialization. Almost every country – led by their private sector but guided by their politicians – is busy doing the exact opposite. The adjective “sustainable” has become a meaningless catchphrase.

We here in Jamaica have been as guilty as any. We have allowed the Ministry of Mining to get away with claiming that they practice “sustainable mining”, a rubbish oxymoron at best, pure ignorance and illiteracy at worst. We allowed the Minister of the Environment to get away with overturning the decision of the NRCA to deny a permit to mine limestone in an environmentally sensitive area; (sorry for the double negative: he ruled to issue the permit to deforest and destroy).

Belém is Portuguese for Bethlehem, but no environmental saviour of the world was born in Belém, Brazil at COP 30 last week. By the end of the conference 88 countries (Jamaica included) pushed for a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, and to phase out subsidies on fossil fuels; however the final text did not even include the words “fossil fuels”, after fierce opposition led by Saudi Arabia. Those who supported a stronger outcome on climate finance for developing countries were equally disappointed.

On to COP 31 in Türkiye.

Peter Espeut is an environmentalist and a development scientist. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com