Elizabeth Morgan | Living in troubling times

EVERY CENTURY comes with its cataclysmic events which are recorded in history and will be discussed, written about and studied for generations to come. The 20th century had quite a few of those which impacted Jamaica. For Jamaica specifically, there was the 1907 earthquake, the two world wars, the 1938 uprisings, Hurricane Gilbert, and others.

In the 21st century, events which 0ate crisis; and the rise of Donald Trump and his MAGA movement into leadership in the US. A major event for Jamaica, in this century’s first quarter, must be the destruction caused by Hurricane Melissa, which is linked to climate change.

CLIMATE CHANGE

It is commendable that Minister Matthew Samuda, was able to address, in person, the COP30 Conference in Belém, Brazil, on November 17, reinforcing to the gathering and the world the severity of the destruction wrought in Jamaica, in a matter of hours, by the powerful Hurricane Melissa. He also stressed the need for the world’s major carbon emitters to meet their obligations to reduce carbon emissions and provide the financing to which they committed.

We must recall that the US, a major emitter, under the administration of President Donald Trump, for the second time, is in the process of withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The US has also opted out of the UN Sustainable Development Goals and reduced overseas development assistance. The Trump Administration has made it clear that their goal is to reduce environmental regulations and ramp up the mining of fossil fuels. The US is already a major producer and exporter of oil. President Trump’s mantra has been “drill, baby, drill”. At the UN General Assembly, he called climate change a hoax. Well, Category 5 Hurricane Melissa was not a hoax. We are also aware that the hurricane season is not yet over.

While we are all preoccupied with the disaster in Jamaica, there are developments taking place around us, in this region, which must be cause for further concern about security. This is not just about Haiti, which is a concern.

While we in Jamaica appreciate the assistance being received from the US in the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa, and have conveyed our gratitude and appreciation, verbally and in writing, it is assumed, there is continuing concern about US activities in this hemisphere. We hope that this US generosity will not carry additional ties.

US MILITARY IN THE CARIBBEAN

It was announced on November 16 that the US aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, and other warships had arrived in the southern Caribbean. They join a flotilla already assembled. We are told that the purpose of this unusually massive military build-up is to address the criminal offence of drug trafficking. With the arrival of this aircraft carrier, the mission known as “Operation Southern Spear” is reported to have nearly a dozen ships and 12,000 sailors and Marines.

The Trump Administration has accused the President of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, of being a narcoterrorist and leader of the drug cartel known as Cartel de los Soles, which the US has designated a foreign terrorist organisation effective November 24. The Venezuelan gang, Tren de la Aragua, was also designated a foreign terrorist organisation. It has been reported that these are actually transnational criminal organisations, and do not fit the usual definition of a foreign terrorist organisation.

The US military, to date, has carried out airstrikes on 21 small boats, killing 83 people, alleging that these boats were carrying illegal drugs destined for the US. It is noted that the US has provided no evidence to support its allegations. Legal analysts consider these strikes to be illegal. There are allies now concerned about sharing intelligence with the USA.

Speculation has it that this military mission is not really about narcotic drugs, as Venezuela is not a major player in the illegal drug trade. It is really about regime change in Venezuela and access to that country’s large oil reserves.

In the CARICOM region, the government of Trinidad and Tobago seems to be maintaining its support for the US presence in the region. Its military will be participating in training exercises with the US military. Guyana, of course, remains concerned about Venezuela’s threat to its territorial integrity. Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda, Gaston Browne urged the US to resolve differences with Venezuela through diplomatic means.

The Venezuelan government has expressed its concern about the US military presence in the region and has been carrying out its own military drills. One faction of the Venezuelan Opposition, led by Maria Machado, is supporting the US presence and is looking forward to the fall of the Maduro regime. One of her associates said that this will be the “Berlin Wall fall in Latin America”. Other sections of the Opposition, led by Henrique Capriles, are wary and are not embracing US military action.

The US president has said that the Venezuelan regime is willing to talk. We have to see how that unfolds. There seems to be the hope that President Maduro will surrender or leave the country.

It is noted that after threats to annex Greenland and Canada, to take back the Panama Canal, and the military build-up in the Caribbean, President Trump recently threatened to take military action in Nigeria in support of Christians being persecuted there. The situation with terrorist groups in Nigeria and in West Africa generally, is not a simple matter. But, President Trump, the peacemaker, seems to be in a belligerent mood. The US Department of Defense is now the Department of War, in certain contexts.

The matter of the unilateral application of increased tariffs by the Trump administration on members of the World Trade Organization, including those in CARICOM, has not gone away. It is raising the price of goods not only in the US, but in other countries, including those in CARICOM. It remains a sore point.

EU/CELAC SUMMIT

A meeting which has gone under the radar is the 4th EU/CELAC Summit held in Santa Marta, Colombia. This meeting aimed to further strengthen the relationship between the countries of the European Union and of the Latin American and Caribbean Community (CELAC), which includes all the countries in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC). The Declaration addressed many of the issues facing the LAC countries.

SUMMIT OF THE AMERICAS

With all that has been happening in the hemisphere and the impact of Hurricane Melissa not only in Jamaica, but in Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic, it was agreed to postpone the Summit of the Americas. As usual, the US had already determined that LAC members, Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, should not be invited to the summit. Other leaders, Colombia and Mexico, had signalled that they would not attend. A sign of discontent in the hemisphere?

So, we are indeed living in troubling times, with the possibility of more cataclysmic events, even in our own hemisphere which has been relatively peaceful. The advent of these situations and their outcomes will be studied for generations to come.

Elizabeth Morgan is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com