Cedric Stephens | Can Jamaica withstand a Hurricane Gilbert 2.0?

The September 19 disruptive flooding in the country’s capital was a stark, wet reminder: our island is grappling with a problem that is deepening every year.

This event occurred 37 years and seven days after Hurricane Gilbert, a Category 4 hurricane, made landfall near Kingston, at around 1 p.m.

One reader, writing about the flood, said “there is no proper drainage anywhere in Jamaica. Westmoreland floods any time it rains. Roads are impassable to Negril from St Elizabeth”.

Architect and conservationist Patricia Green added her expert comments to the ensuing public discussion, as did civil engineer, Christopher Burgess. He estimated the cost of the flood in a second article at “probably over a billion dollars”.

Leaders of the National Works Agency, NWA, Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management, ODPEM, and/or their parent ministries, offered no comments on the event, based on the estimate, or framed it within the historical context of catastrophes that have affected the island and stunted its development. Why not? Weather experts predicted an “above normal” hurricane season this year, which has more weeks to run before it ends on November 30.

Inadequate infrastructure and low insurance penetration aggravate the social and economic impacts of disaster events like these. To safeguard our homes, businesses, and economy, we must move past short term fixes and confront the relentless forces shaping our future: climate change, vulnerable infrastructure, and over a decade of insufficient attention to the problem.

A long-term solution requires a shift in mindset – from post-disaster response to proactive, national, and personal resilience.

The core questions are: what is being done, and what more needs to be done to fortify our island against the disasters of today and tomorrow? How can resilience move from being an abstraction into something tangible? What costs will be involved and how will they be funded?

For decades, we have been building and insuring physical assets based on historical weather patterns. Those patterns no longer apply. Climate change, for a small island developing state like Jamaica, means more than just a slow creep of sea level rise; it means a drastic change in the frequency and intensity of rainfall and hurricane events.

While the total amount of rain over a year might not change significantly, more of it is now falling in shorter, more intense bursts. The downpours overwhelm drainage systems designed for a gentler era. The sheer volume of water – compounded by the rapid runoff from deforested hillsides and improperly built developments – is a recipe for disaster.

The recent storm, civil engineer Burgess wrote, was a test that Kingston & St Andrew failed miserably. “We must urgently pivot to meet climate-related (and other) hazards with information, upgrades, and pragmatism,” he wrote.

Jamaica is one of the world’s most exposed countries to natural hazards. Further, economic assets and tourism infrastructure are in vulnerable coastal and low-lying areas. When the water recedes, the damage tally is frightening.

Recurring natural disasters consistently show that damage to public property – our roads, bridges, and critically, our drainage systems – accounts for the major portion of the financial losses, underscoring just how precarious the foundation is.

When a gully overflows, or a main road is washed away, it is not just a maintenance problem; it is a design deficit. Much of our current infrastructure was not built to manage the exceptional rainfall volumes we now routinely experience.

Inadequate sizing of culverts and drains, coupled with accumulated garbage and debris from improper disposal, create the literal chokepoints that turn a heavy shower into a widespread flood event. This was Architect Green’s experience as she encountered the deluge while driving home.

Central and local government, to be fair, are moving from simple repairs to undertaking activities to promote resilience, at a painfully slow pace. NWA’s efforts in addressing the drainage problems in a few low-lying areas, along with projects to build reinforced seawalls and coastal defences, are essential steps in this direction.

Every dollar spent today on upgrading drainage capacity and fortifying structures is an investment that has the potential to save lives and yields significant savings in future post-disaster repair costs.

These efforts must be data driven. Planners, engineers, insurers, and other interests all desperately need current, detailed flood hazard maps. They need to know exactly where the risk is highest to properly price the cost of flood insurance, enforce safer building codes, and ensure that new developments are not built on known flood plains, like a police station in St Catherine.

Resilient infrastructure means making smarter planning decisions, not just pouring more concrete.

While individuals and businesses must shoulder the burden of repairs for their assets, plus the impacts of under insurance, non-insurance, and deductibles, the Government of Jamaica has a duty to protect the nation’s fiscal health. This is where the strategic financial tools come into play. They include a catastrophe bond, sovereign coverage with the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and a contingent line of credit with the International Monetary Fund.

The CCRIF mechanism uses parametric insurance, a sophisticated system where payouts are made almost immediately based on pre-defined scientific thresholds, such as ground-shaking intensity or measured rainfall, and not on lengthy damage assessments. The rapid injection of capital is vital; it provides critical cash flow for immediate relief efforts and start urgent public infrastructure repairs within weeks of an event.

The IMF tool, the Precautionary and Liquidity Line, provides access to funds in the event of severe economic shocks or natural disasters and acts as a financial safety net. These instruments are part of the country’s overall National Natural Disaster Risk Financing Policy. They allow the government to plan for both high-severity, low-frequency events, such as a Category 5 hurricane, where the CCRIF is key, and the more common, high-frequency, low-severity events, like localised floods, which can often be managed through budget reallocation and other contingency funds.

For any national resilience plan to succeed, the active participation of every citizen is essential. Stronger and bigger drains are useless if we continue to treat them as garbage receptacles. Personal mitigation is an act of national service. The government can build the capacity. Communities, the local authorities must take responsibility for proper garbage disposal and report blocked or vandalised drains and gullies.

Families should develop emergency plans. Essential documents and valuables should be secured well ahead of any forecast heavy weather or other home emergency. It was distressing to read about the senior citizen who died in a recent fire after he ran into a burning building. Could a fire extinguisher have allowed him a few seconds to escape?

Property insurance is essential for owners and renters. Jamaica’s future safety and prosperity depend on the convergence of smarter, stronger, climate-resilient infrastructure and a more risk-aware, insured citizenry.

The rain will fall. Other disasters will occur. Our challenge is to ensure that we have the ‘backative’ to survive the disruptions, whenever they occur.

Cedric E. Stephens provides independent information and advice about the management of risks and insurance. For free information or counsel, write to: aegis@flowja.com or business@gleanerjm.com