Path to victory

Jamaica’s two main political parties have outlined their strategies for the general election due by September, each charting a path they believe will lead to victory.

The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) says it is banking on its record of delivering on its promises to win the confidence of the electorate for a third term. The People’s National Party (PNP), in the meantime, says it is going after swing seats and aiming to retain the constituencies it lost in 2011 by using data-driven methods to identify and present solutions to the issues that matter most to voters.

Each unveiled their approaches in separate Gleaner Editors’ Forums held recently at the newspaper’s North Street, Kingston offices.

For the PNP to end nearly a decade in opposition, experts say it must gain 18 additional seats while holding on to its current constituencies. Meanwhile, the JLP cannot afford to lose more than 17 seats if it hopes to stay in power.

“They [electorate] know we will keep our commitments and therefore think we can earn the confidence of the majority to go forward,” JLP General Secretary Dr Horace Chang declared.

Chang hailed the policies championed by party leader, Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness in the last decade, highlighting their role in driving economic development. He pointed to tangible results such as record low levels of unemployment, reduced debt-to-GDP ratios, and steady economic growth.

RECORD-LOW UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

In October last year, Jamaica’s unemployment rate fell to a new record low of 3.5 per cent. Data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica showed the labour force grew to 1,468,300 individuals, with more Jamaican men becoming gainfully employed.

Historically, Jamaica has struggled with significantly high debt-to-GDP rates, which soared to as high as 212 per cent in the mid-1980s. But the country is now on track to reach a rate of 60 per cent by 2028, as mandated by new fiscal rules.

And, after registering two consecutive quarters of decline in September (down 3.5 per cent), and December 2024 (down 0.8 per cent), the economy grew 0.8 per cent in March, marking its exit from technical recession.

This prudent fiscal management of Jamaica’s economy, Chang said, has allowed the Government to increase the country’s capital expenditure and make substantial investments in the country’s infrastructure.

“We have increased trust levels, we have spoken about things and delivered,” he asserted.

Acknowledging that “thirds are always hard”, Senator Dr Dana Morris Dixon, co-chair of the JLP’s communications committee, reiterated the party’s demonstrated capability in managing the country’s affairs, which she said effectively counter opposing arguments, and will propel it forward.

“We have a track record that shows that we can deliver. So it’s not just empty promises and, throughout our history, it’s been empty promises. But I think, in this campaign, we actually can run on our record, which is a beautiful thing,” she said.

She added: “You’re not gonna be able to say, ‘Oh, look at unemployment. Unemployment is at a record low. In the past, you would say that. Poverty levels have come down … debt is down, all those things that you could have used in the past.”

She highlighted a reduction in poverty prevalence among Jamaicans and emphasised projects such as the recent opening of the $6-billion Morant Bay Urban Centre in St Thomas, the $45-billion Shared Prosperity through Accelerated Improvement to our Road Network (SPARK) Programme that aims to improve 2,000 roads across Jamaica, as well as other investments in health and education.

“I think this administration has done an excellent job in actually delivering. So the question is, if you are thinking about the future of Jamaica, who do you think can deliver on that future?” Morris Dixon quizzed.

Chang, in the meantime, asserted that the JLP’s showing in last year’s local government elections was a “practical test of our organisation and an assessment of the mode of our workers, so it was useful going forward”.

Although the JLP secured seven councils compared to the PNP’s six, the opposition party won the popular vote, garnering roughly 20,000 more votes than the JLP. The PNP received 311,603 votes while the JLP polled 290,166.

Even though Chang believes this result will have little bearing on how the governing party will perform in the general election, he said it indicated to “a number of people that if you don’t pull up your socks in your political programme, you will get hurt”.

PNP General Secretary Dr Dayton Campbell said the party was currently making an assessment of constituencies across the island, while also evaluating the strength of their candidates.

“Our path to victory is to pretty much regain the constituencies that we had in 2011,” he stated.

“We traditionally win some seats. Clearly, those won’t be the first ones that we will target. And then there are others that are marginal, and I think both parties know the ones that are marginal for the most part … South West St Elizabeth, South East St Elizabeth, Western St Mary … .”

St Elizabeth South Western and St Elizabeth South Eastern have voted for the party that formed the government every election since 1989. These seats are currently held by Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining Floyd Green and his state minister, Franklyn Witter, respectively.

Mayor of Spanish Town Norman Scott and Black River High School teacher, Miranda Wellington, are the PNP’s candidates for these constituencies, aiming to unseat the JLP.

St Mary Western is currently held by JLP Chairman Robert Montague. However, the loss of the Gayle division to the PNP last year was a wake-up call, as this division has traditionally been a stronghold for the governing party.

Newcomer to national elections, Omar Woodbine is the PNP’s candidate, hoping to uproot the veteran politician.

Although he stated that the PNP’s overall branding and messaging is still undergoing some fine-tuning, Campbell noted that their data-driven grassroots approach has been connecting with the electorate.

“We have put forward some proposals that are resonating well with the people in the areas of housing, education, around the economy, in the area of agriculture, and we will continue to develop on that, and that will form the basis of the manifesto,” he said.

The most prominent proposal from the PNP, should it form the next government, is to significantly increase the availability of low-income housing by building 50,000 affordable homes over the next five years. This initiative will target public sector workers, young professionals, and low-income earners.

Additionally, PNP President Mark Golding has pledged to establish a National Disability Fund, if his party assumes office. He has also committed to increasing investment to address the needs of children with special needs in Jamaica.

The party has also outlined other plans for the country’s agriculture industry, education, and health.

Campbell noted, too, that the party’s slogan of ‘Time Come’ has been serving to alert the electorate of these plans and their role in helping them come to fruition.

“Time Come serves to answer a criticism and it also answers our proposal. Time Come for us to get rid of corruption in government. Time Come for people to live in dignity and affordable housing. So it is very flexible and it is able to anchor our message that we are carrying,” he said.

sashana.small@gleanerjm.com

(Editor's note: In a previous version of this article, Norman Scott was incorrectly identifed as mayor of Black River)