Norris R. McDonald | A storm of crises: Hurricane Melissa and IMF budget woes!

“Misery acquaints a man with strange bedfellows!”

—William Shakespeare, The Tempest

SHOULD JAMAICA continue to pay the International Monetary Fund (IMF) while its people starve in the wake of the severe devastation caused by Hurricane Melissa? This monster Category 5 hurricane demolished homes, hospitals, schools, livelihoods, and people’s lives.

This is an uncomfortable question the Government must answer; debt payment or rebuilding people’s lives. Given Jamaica’s Budget woes, Melissa is forcing Jamaica to reassess national priorities.

A REBUILDING ACTION PLAN

The storm’s toll is undeniable. Over 25,000 people were forced into shelters at one point. In Black River, up to 90 per cent of roofs were reportedly destroyed. The sheer scale of this damage has created immediate and long-term challenges — not just for shelter, but for rebuilding homes and infrastructure that were already dilapidated.

It is commendable that the Government has responded with a sense of urgency. And I am glad to see the cooperation with the Opposition. We do not need political ‘kass-kass’ or any ‘parson christen him pickney first’ acts of discrimination. However, much more needs to be done.

Housing rehabilitation can be urgently addressed, in my opinion, by leveraging resources from the National Housing Trust, the Jamaican Defence Force, the Urban Development Corporation, and private developers, such as West Indies Home Contractors. This could hasten housing solution for disaster victims.

The Sites and Services Model — where small, practical homes are built on previously occupied land — can give disaster victims the urgent help needed to rebuild their lives.

As assessments continue, it’s clear that Jamaica’s infrastructure — roads, hospitals, and schools in many rural areas — was already woefully inadequate. Hurricane Melissa has laid bare deep systemic neglect of poor black people who lived in these communities living hand-to-mouth.

And the question therefore remains: Debt or development?

THE ECONOMIC FALLOUT: DEBT VS DISASTER

Prior to Hurricane Melissa, Jamaica faced high interest rates debt payments of almost US$2 billion due by 2028. The Government’s ability to service this debt could be severely compromised, especially with a sharp decline in tourism revenue.

Tourism is the backbone of Jamaica’s service-oriented economy, and it has taken a major hit too. In 2024, the tourism sector generated US$4.3 billion, contributing heavily to Jamaica’s GDP growth. A sharp drop in tourism bookings could make Jamaica lose between US$432 million and US$1.3 billion in tourism revenue. The economic impact is staggering, and this could make the Budget gap further widen as government resources become further stretched to breaking point.

Hotels and resorts have suffered severe damage, and recovery could take months, if not years. Even after they are rebuilt, many establishments will likely face long periods of cancellations and a decrease in international arrivals. Estimates suggest losses could range from US$500 million to US$1 billion, depending on recovery speed.

Then there is the ripple effect on individuals who hustle for a living, selling craft items, street food or other forms of commerce. Small businesses, hotel workers, local tour guides, small restaurant owners, and taxi drivers face an uncertain future. A three- to six-month downturn could result in income losses ranging from US$10 million to US$50 million for small-scale operators. This would lead to widespread closures, lay-offs, and rising unemployment.

Should Jamaica continue to sacrifice its people for the sake of creditors, or should we suspend debt payments temporarily to free up resources for recovery?

What do you think?

A STORM OF CRISES

The IMF does have a “catastrophic relief” provision designed to offer temporary assistance to countries like Jamaica whose economies are severely impacted by natural disasters. Jamaica more than qualifies for this relief, as the storm has caused widespread devastation, with long-term economic consequences.

Moreover, seeking international assistance in the current political climate poses its own challenges. Many Western leaders, particularly in the US, have become increasingly narcissistic, isolationist and indifferent to the suffering of the poor, whether at home or abroad. Gone are the days when development assistance would pour in during crises like these.

Let me remind you that right now in America, 40 million Americans go hungry due to President Trump’s refusal to authorise food stamps. And yet, the US government continues to spend billions on its military efforts abroad — over US$1 billion on an armada that has killed an estimated 67 poor, black and Latino fishermen.

Also, President Trump slashed US$5 billion from the USAID programme, leaving no room for international relief efforts. This is why it’s going to come down to creative financing to dig ourselves out of this Hurricane Melissa and Budget debt mess.

SURVIVAL AND HUMAN DIGNITY

Once we take foreign assistance out of the equation, debt restructuring — or even postponement — may be Jamaica’s only viable option in the short and medium term; that is, at least five years down the road. Call it a moratorium or a restructuring; rebuilding people’s lives, human dignity and national survival must take precedence over IMF debt payments.

Postponing the roughly US$1 billion per year debt payment may save Jamaica up to US$5 billion. This savings, if accrued, can be redirected to disaster relief and rebuilding efforts.

I hope the Government, if they have not done this yet, will make this bold, urgent step.

My dear friends, Hurricane Melissa didn’t just test Jamaica’s physical infrastructure; it tested the nation’s moral compass. Rebuilding lives, healing our nation, and restoring our national spirit must now come first before foreign debt payments.

The national disaster has made it clear: the Budget must serve the people, not the other way around. Rebuilding infrastructure and addressing the needs of the most vulnerable must take precedence. If the Government continues to prioritise debt repayment over human life, Jamaica’s future will remain uncertain.

In a world of human tragedy from Hurricane Melissa, massive foreign debt, poverty, hunger and social deprivation, we must continue to fight to end any semblance of indifference to human lives. Hurricane Melissa serves as a warning sign that cannot be ignored. As a people, we must unite around this national rebuilding efforts, irrespective of political party affiliations.

That’s just the bitta truth.

Norris R. McDonald is an author, economic journalist, political analyst, and respiratory therapist. Feedback: columns@gleanerjm.com | miaminorris@yahoo.com